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NY Jets: Positive Regression

August 11th, 2017 at 10:37 AM
Aggregated By Sports Media 101

We often hear talk in sports about regression to the mean. In most cases the talk centers around a player having a career year falling back down to earth, but regression doesn’t have to be a negative thing. Regression to the mean simply refers to the phenomenon that, all things being equal, the best bet for any given player with a long enough track record to establish some notion of said player’s abilities is that he will perform at a level close to the level his track record has established as normal for him. No, that isn’t a mathematical definition, but it’s accurate enough for our purposes.

The more a veteran player deviates from his average level of play in one year, the better the odds that year will prove to be an aberration, a statistical blip, if you will. So, for example, Falcons fans should probably not be making their Super Bowl reservations just yet, as quarterback Matt Ryan last season suddenly morphed from a long career of good but not great play into the best quarterback in the NFL, at least from a passer rating perspective. Ryan made an enormous jump in his …

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Tags: Falcons, Jets, Kelvin Beachum, Matt Ryan, Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Super Bowl

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